The coming tax reckoning

即将到来的税务清算

Editor's Picks from The Economist

2026-10-06

6 分钟
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Surging public debt and the rapid rise of artificial intelligence threaten to disrupt rich-world tax systems. Topics covered: • Tax policy • Artificial intelligence • Labour income Listen to what matters most, from global politics and business to science and technology—subscribe to The Economist.
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  • The yield on 10-year US treasuries has charged through the 5% barrier.

  • The spread between French government bonds and German bonds is at a level not seen since the Eurozone

  • crisis in 2012. Britain's newish Prime Minister has this week set out a plan for spending bolstered

  • by a taboo-busting promise to curb state pension increases and yet is still in a fiscal pickle.

  • Across the world, countries are struggling to coax more growth out of their economies.

  • And that's not the worst of it.

  • As we explain this week, the tax base in all countries,

  • which depends heavily on taxing labour, may be upended by artificial intelligence.

  • Add these problems together,

  • and it is as if a mighty hurricane were about to hit the rich world's tax systems, which are hopelessly unprepared.

  • The way the state raises money is wasteful, unfair, and perverse.

  • You would have thought the government would be scrambling to strengthen the system before the hurricane makes landfall,

  • but as ever, they are running away from tax reform instead.

  • The accumulated flaws of modern tax systems are so ubiquitous that they have become part of the economic backdrop.

  • Taxes are full of needless complexity.

  • In Germany, the rate of value-added tax, or VAT, on oat milk is more than double that on cow's milk, for example.

  • Such widespread special treatment has ruinous fiscal consequences.

  • Across the OECD, a club of mostly rich countries,

  • consumption taxes raise only 58% of what they could if there were no carve-outs and no evasion.

  • Tax systems also create perverse incentives.