The Gulf war will change Asia for good

能源危机改变亚洲

Economist

2026-05-15

8 分钟
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  • What Narendra Modi asks of Indians, he usually gets.

  • During the pandemic India's prime minister exhorted them to stay inside

  • and to bang pots and pans in support of health workers.

  • The country obliged.

  • On May 10th he asked Indians to replicate some of that covid-era discipline.

  • He urged them to work from home where possible, and to cut back on foreign travel.

  • Mr Modi's plea comes amid a worsening energy shock caused by the war in Iran.

  • For weeks the Indian government has kept fuel prices constant,

  • forcing state-owned oil firms to absorb a surge in the cost of imported crude.

  • And India is just the latest of many Asian countries asking people to tighten their belts.

  • But even those that moved early to control energy use,

  • such as Thailand and the Philippines, are now entering dangerous territory.

  • The effects of the war are threatening to upend the region's economies—and its politics.

  • In places without fuel-price caps, such as Pakistan and the Philippines, prices have soared (see chart).

  • But the rising concern, especially in developing Asia, is that supplies could simply run out.

  • Indonesia is reported to have a buffer of three weeks' fuel; Vietnam has less than a month.

  • People in Pakistan and Bangladesh, reliant on natural gas from the Gulf, have endured long blackouts.

  • Petrol pumps in rural areas are running dry.

  • "We wake up at 2am and often wait 24 hours just to get two litres of diesel,"

  • says Mizanur Rahman, a farmer in Bangladesh.