Is Cuba Next? A Conversation With Michael J. Bustamante and Ricardo Zuniga

石油断供、经济停滞:古巴困境背后的美利坚博弈逻辑。

The Foreign Affairs Interview

2026-06-11

1 小时 6 分钟
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单集简介 ...

U.S. President Donald Trump has insisted that he will have the “honor of taking Cuba.” Although the administration has not specified what that might mean, following interventions in Venezuela and Iran over the past six months, there is reason to take seriously the possibility of some kind of forceful U.S. action, including military action. Already, a combination of U.S. pressure and the Cuban government’s own failures has resulted in unrelentingly dire conditions on the island—leading many to expect some kind of break before long. In recent weeks, two of the sharpest observers of Cuba and U.S. policy toward Cuba have written essays in Foreign Affairs on the choices facing policymakers in both Havana and Washington. Michael Bustamante is chair of Cuba and Cuban-American studies at the University of Miami. And Ricardo Zuniga is a longtime U.S. official who served at the embassy in Havana and helped lead the secret talks that brought the Obama administration’s opening to Cuba. Dan Kurtz-Phelan spoke with Bustamante and Zuniga on June 8 about what U.S. policymakers could and should do in the coming weeks and months—and what those decisions will mean for Cuba’s future. You can find sources, transcripts, and more episodes of The Foreign Affairs Interview at https://www.foreignaffairs.com/podcasts/foreign-affairs-interview.
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  • I’m Dan Kurtz-Phelan, and this is the Foreign Affairs Interview.

  • For me, the real bottom line is they should just take the military threat off the table.

  • There's no point at this stage doing it.

  • There's not a single military strike that's going to be effective.

  • You know, the United States is not going to occupy Cuba.

  • I don't see a way out of this that doesn't involve the Cuban government coming to the table

  • and seeding on some things that they never wanted to seed on before.

  • Donald Trump has insisted that he will have "the honor of taking Cuba."

  • While the administration has not specified what that might mean,

  • in the wake of interventions in Venezuela and Iran over the past six months,

  • there is reason to take seriously the possibility of some kind of forceful US action,

  • including military action.

  • Already, a combination of US pressure and the Cuban government's own failures

  • has resulted in unrelentingly dire conditions on the island,

  • leading many to expect some kind of break before long.

  • In recent weeks, two of the sharpest observers of Cuba and US policy toward Cuba

  • have written essays in Foreign Affairs on the choices facing policymakers in both Havana and Washington.

  • Michael Bustamante is chair of Cuba and Cuban-American studies at the University of Miami,

  • and Ricardo Zúñiga is a longtime US official who served at the US embassy in Havana

  • and helped lead the secret talks that brought the Obama administration's opening to Cuba.