2026-06-22
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The deployment of a new 24-hour rapid intensification forecast model for typhoons
and its 12-hour rapid intensification forecast service now offer China significantly enhanced forecasting performance.
The model developed at the Shenzhen Institutes of Advanced Technology under Chinese Academy of Sciences,
recently completed operational deployment
and real-world application testing at the country's National Meteorological Centre.
In meteorology, a typhoon is defined as undergoing rapid intensification when its maximum sustained wind speed increases
by more than 15 meters per second within 24 hours or by more than 10 meters per second within 12 hours.
According to Li Qinglan, the team leader, the evolution of typhoon intensity,
is controlled by multiple interacting factors that include inner core structure,
environmental background and land-sea surface interactions, making accurate forecast extremely difficult.
To solve this, the team established two quantitative indices, the sea-land ratio which captures variations
in land-sea distribution along a typhoon track and the symmetric ratio which describes inner core convective symmetry.
The indices reveal physical links between inner core symmetry and rapid intensification.
Lee explains that prior to rapid intensification,
a typhoon's inner core typically develops a highly symmetric ring-like structure.
A more symmetric inner core indicates a higher likelihood of rapid intensification occurrence.