Why didn’t the Iran war cause a recession? With Tyler Goodspeed

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• 00:02

  Back when the Iran war started, the predictions were dire.

• 00:04

  The head of the International Energy Agency warned of the biggest energy crisis in history,

• 00:09

  given the Strait of Hormuz was delivering such a huge share of the world's oil and gas supplies.

• 00:15

  Its closure represented a nasty shock to the global economy and raised the risk of a recession.

• 00:21

  But the recession hasn't come.

• 00:24

  The global economy seems to have been remarkably resilient.

• 00:28

  There's some pressure on inflation, but not the sort of spiral into a downturn that everyone was worrying about.

• 00:34

  Why?

• 00:35

  And if turning off the oil taps doesn't cause a recession, what does?

• 00:42

  This is The Economics Show with Samaya Keynes.

• 00:44

  I'm joined here in the studio by Tyler Goodspeed.

• 00:47

  Tyler is the chief economist of ExxonMobil and the author of a book,

• 00:52

  Recession, The Real Reasons Economies Shrink and What to Do About It.

• 00:56

  Tyler, hello.

• 00:58

  Good to be with you.

• 00:59

  I am so pleased that you are here because we have been trying to set up this conversation for quite some time.

• 01:05

  I think the first time was a few months ago when you were quite busy because, you know,

• 01:11

  your book could just come out about recessions, but also your day job meant that you were tied up.

• 01:17

  It was a frantic March and April in particular.

• 01:19

  I should specify up front that the book and my comments here today are my own views and shouldn't

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