Global imbalances are back. Who’s to blame?

全球经济大失衡

Economist

2026-04-16

7 分钟
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  • In the years before Lehman Brothers went bust in 2008,

  • plunging the world into financial crisis,

  • macroeconomists were understandably worried.

  • But they worried about the wrong thing:

  • not over-indebted American banks, but over-thrifty Asian economies.

  • There was a glut of commentary about the "global saving glut".

  • According to this theory, Asia's determination to accumulate dollar reserves was depressing interest rates,

  • tempting Americans to overspend.

  • The upshot was that Asia earned more than it spent, resulting in large trade surpluses.

  • This enabled America to spend more than it earned,

  • reflected in a yawning current-account deficit

  • (which includes the trade deficit and a few other things).

  • These "global imbalances" are back.

  • And they have inspired a new glut of analysis.

  • In March four prominent economists sent a memo on imbalances to the G7,

  • drawing on a new publication (the fourth "Paris report")

  • by the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) and the Bruegel Institute,

  • two European think-tanks.

  • This month the IMF released a paper of its own on the topic.

  • The new imbalances are not quite as big as those of two decades ago.