The data black hole at the center of AI

人工智能中心的“数据黑洞”

Dwarkesh Podcast

2026-06-20

11 分钟
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Read the transcript here. Thanks to Mercury for sponsoring this essay! Mercury just released a new feature called Command, which gives me AI right in my banking platform. And since I use Mercury to run basically my entire business, Command has access to all the info it needs to get real work done. I can ask it to send invoices, or categorize expenses, or even transfer money… and Command just handles it. Learn more at mercury.com/command Timestamps: (00:00:00) – What is really driving AI progress? (00:03:11) – Comparing human vs AI sample efficiency (00:08:46) – Does sample efficiency matter? Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
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  • So one definition of intelligence is sample efficiency.

  • That is to say, how much data do you need in a given domain to operate fluently and competently?

  • And it's actually not clear that we've made that much progress in training sample efficiency over the last few years.

  • It seems like more so we've just dramatically widened and improved the data distribution.

  • The main way that AI has been getting better is from adding more and better

  • data and scaling the compute required to develop that data in the first place.

  • Obviously, RL is the main way that this has happened.

  • You can think of RL as basically a kind of synthetic data generation

  • where you dump a ton of compute against a verifier or a rubric if you have an LLM as a judge.

  • And you do this in order to find out what the good data is in the first place.

  • And then you train your model to predict these correct rollouts

  • much in the same way that you might train that model to predict the next word in internet text.

  • For this process to work, the model must have at least some prior probability to anticipate

  • the correct solution in the first place, which is why you need mind stretching amounts of human expert

  • trajectories in every single field and skill that you want the model to eventually be competent in.

  • It's hard to overstate how task specific and bespoke this human expert data is.

  • If you want some intuition, I recommend checking out the job descriptions on McCore or Surge's websites.

  • There are listings for word specialists who will convert legacy documents into polished word files and legal experts

  • who will write realistic M&A deligences or securities filings

  • and management consultants who will write up template market research.