Tyler Goodspeed on Challenging the Way Economists Look at Recessions

挑战经济学家看待经济衰退的方式——泰勒·古德史密斯

Macro Musings with David Beckworth

2026-05-11

1 小时 1 分钟
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Tyler Goodspeed is the former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors and is currently a chief economist in the private sector. In Tyler's first appearance on the podcast he discusses his new book highlighting a different way of looking at recessions, the challenge of breaking away from the human inclination of ascribing patterns to random phenomena, whether recessions are more Dorian Gray or Peter Pan, what history and stories like Jay Cooke tell us about recessions, how to evaluate supply side shocks and the 2008 Financial Crisis, why Milton Friedman's Plucking model might be the best we have at modeling recessions, and much more. Watch the full length video on our new YouTube Channel! Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on April 15th, 2026 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:00:43 - Recessions 00:07:07 - Epiphanies or Apophanies 00:26:40 - Peter Pan vs. Dorian Gray 00:33:40 - Jay Cooke and the Railroad 00:39:00 - Models of Recessions 00:47:55 - Supply Shocks 00:50:12 - Recessions in Different Places 01:00:25 - Outro
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  • Welcome to Macro Musings, where each week we pull back the curtain and take a closer look at the most important

  • macroeconomic issues of the past, present, and future.

  • I am your host, David Beckworth, a Senior Research Fellow with the Mercatus Center at George Mason University,

  • and I'm glad you decided to join us.

  • Our guest today is Tyler Goodsby.

  • Tyler is a former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors and currently is a chief economist in the private sector.

  • He has a new book out titled Recessions, where he takes a look at what really causes recessions.

  • Tyler, welcome to the podcast.

  • Good to be with you, David.

  • Great to have you on.

  • This was a really fascinating read, and it 's going to challenge a lot of people's priors,

  • kind of their view on what drives business cycles and how to think about business cycles.

  • Before we get into it, tell us a little bit about yourself

  • and how you ended up writing a book on what really causes recessions.

  • So in one respect, it was a continuation of my intellectual journey as an academic economist.

  • I had been for over a decade researching, writing about not just historical economic shocks and historical

  • economic recessions, but also the intellectual debates about those.

  • And then secondly.

  • I had just when I started the project,

  • I had just we had all just lived through one of the sharpest economic contractions in U.S.