Drill pickle: oil prices still misjudge shock

油价暴涨

The Intelligence from The Economist

2026-04-30

19 分钟
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Oil prices are at their highest since 2022, as a swift end to the Iran conflict proves elusive. Yet, our commodities editor says, markets do not yet yet recognise how deep the supply shock is. Who will contest next year's pivotal election in France? And great expectations in Brazil ahead of the World Cup. Watch “The Insider”: How high will the oil price go  Guests and host: Matthieu Favas, commodities editorSophie Pedder, Paris bureau chiefJon Fasman, senior culture correspondentRosie Blau, host of “The Intelligence” Topics covered:  Oil, Brent crude, OPEC, Iran, UAEFrance, Macron, Marine Le Pen, National RallyWorld Cup, Brazil, Pele  Listen to what matters most, from global politics and business to science and technology—Subscribe to Economist Podcasts+
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  • The Economist.

  • Hello and welcome to The Intelligence from The Economist.

  • I'm Rosie Blau.

  • Today on the show: who will stand in France's pivotal presidential election,

  • and Brazil's chances at this summer's World Cup.

  • Oil prices have hit their highest level since 2022.

  • The price of Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, passed $125 a barrel

  • as hopes for a swift end to the conflict in Iran evaporated.

  • This week too, the United Arab Emirates announced it was leaving OPEC,

  • the oil cartel that, theoretically, keeps prices and supply stable.

  • The sustained blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global oil consumption flows,

  • once seemed unimaginable.

  • Now we're experiencing the biggest supply shock in the history of the oil market.

  • Yet highest prices are today, they may not yet reflect that reality.

  • If you look at oil prices, you wouldn't really believe that we are on the brink of energy apocalypse.

  • Matthieu Favas is our commodities editor.

  • And that's because oil prices today, Brent crude the global benchmark,

  • is still lower than it was at the peak of the Russia-Ukraine crisis of 2022.

  • Yes, petrol is a bit pricier.

  • Yes, it costs more to buy a plane ticket.