2026-09-15
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For Germany, it is a red alert.
On September 6, the Alternative for Germany, AFD, won 44% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt.
A party that employs unrepentant former neo-Nazis and has been labelled extremist by the intelligence service
is on the cusp of becoming the first populist right group to run one of Germany's 16 states
since 1945. To take office, the AfD still needs allies or defections.
That should not blind Germany to the risk.
The party was always going to do well in Saxony-Anhalt,
which is depopulated, deprived, and in the East, where party loyalties are weak.
But in national polls, the AfD now also has a lead of eight points over the centre-right CDU-CSU,
led by Friedrich Merz, the Chancellor.
A federal election today might require a coalition of every centrist party to keep it from power.
Germany's centrists have long thought that a firewall excluding the AfD from coalitions could keep it at bay.
But behind this Brandmauer, the party has grown and radicalised, pursuing racist fantasies of remigration,
rapprochement with Russia and exit from the European Union and Euro.
Its manifesto for Saxony-Anhalt, which called for a radical reshaping of the state's education,
culture, media and civil service, proved alarmingly popular.