Drilling it home: how could China blockade Taiwan?

台海局势推演

Drum Tower

2025-04-15

40 分钟
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China launched large-scale military exercises around Taiwan this month, warning that reunification was “an unstoppable trend”. It sent fighter jets and warships to surround the island, held live-fire missile drills, and simulated a blockade. Meanwhile, a propaganda video referred to Taiwanese leaders as “separatists” and “parasites”. The message is clear: if Taiwan rejects reunification, China has the capacity to cut the island off from the world. Alice Su, The Economist's senior China correspondent and Anton La Guardia, our diplomatic editor, ask: what might a siege of Taiwan look like? And how should Taiwan—and the world—prepare for it?  Transcripts of our podcasts are available via economist.com/podcasts. Listen to what matters most, from global politics and business to science and technology—subscribe to Economist Podcasts+. 
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  • The Economist.

  • Chinese pilots fly military aircraft near Taiwan almost every day.

  • But before 2020, they used to avoid crossing the median line,

  • a de facto border in the middle of the Taiwan Strait.

  • In recent years, that line has been erased.

  • The PLA gradually increased its median line crossings

  • from just a handful of planes a few times a year

  • to more than 3,000 crossings in 2024.

  • It's an example of how China used grey zone aggression to create a new normal.

  • And now, China is working on the next step.

  • In April, the PLA launched major military exercises around Taiwan.

  • It sent fighter jets and warships to surround the island,

  • held live fire missile drills, and announced that it was practicing a blockade.

  • Drills like these are becoming regular.

  • With these mock blockades, China is sending a clear signal.

  • That if Taiwan dares to reject unification,

  • then China has a capacity to cut the island off from the world.

  • And the consequences would be dire.

  • I am Alice Su, The Economist senior China correspondent.

  • And I am joined by Anton La Guardia, our diplomatic editor.