How high will the oil price go? | The Economist Insider

油价会涨到多离谱

Insider

2026-05-01

43 分钟
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The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has taken about a seventh of the world’s oil supply offline for two months. The oil price is only just beginning to reflect the consequences. On Wednesday the price of a barrel of Brent crude shot up to around $120, having ended last week not much above $100. It probably has further to rise. Before the war, analysts forecast a price of $150-200 in a scenario where the strait remained closed for months. How high will the oil price go? Join Zanny Minton Beddoes, editor-in-chief, Edward Carr, deputy editor, and a panel of our top editors and correspondents as they consider how bad could things get if the strait remains closed—and what the consequences will be for the hitherto resilient world economy.
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  • Hi everyone, and welcome back to The Insider from our studios in London.

  • I'm Zanny Minton Beddoes, The Economist's Editor-in-Chief.

  • As regular viewers will know, we've all been scratching our heads for weeks

  • as to why oil prices haven't shot up,

  • even as the Strait of Hormuz has remained all but shut for two months.

  • In an earlier show, we talked about cognitive dissonance between the market's optimism and the grim reality.

  • Well, now it seems nervousness is setting in.

  • A fortnight ago, a barrel of Brent crude was $90.

  • In the last few days though, it's been rising sharply,

  • and overnight, it jumped to over $125, its highest level since 2022.

  • We're recording this show at 1:00 PM in London on Thursday,

  • and in the last few hours, the price has fallen again to below $120.

  • But it seems that those ever-ebullient oil traders are finally getting jittery.

  • Are they waking up to the reality of a conflict with no end in sight?

  • And if so, what lies ahead?

  • With me to help work out what on earth is going on is, as always, Ed Carr, my deputy.

  • Ed, very nice to see you.

  • Hi, Zanny.

  • And Matthieu Favas, our commodities editor, is joining us.

  • Matthieu, you are my tutor in all of this, you're helping make sense of it.