2026-05-14
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Just when you think you got it all figured out, you see trends in progress that seem to contradict each other.
And you wouldn't have expected that.
Here's one example.
So whatever you think of the war with Iran, there is really no arguing the fact it has caused a global energy crisis,
maybe the most severe global energy crisis, well, since the discovery of fossil fuels.
To give it some perspective, so the Strait of Hormuz famously is closed down.
That's the choke point through which a fifth of the world's hydrocarbons flow.
And that's been for maybe two and a half months.
If the straight is opened by next month, which is best case scenario,
we have no idea if that 's going to happen or not, but let 's just say it did.
June, straight opens, business returns to normal, energy flows what they were on February 27th,
just world returns to status quo, there will still be a net loss of 1.8 billion barrels of oil,