#36 Bank of England: Private Credit Has Echoes of Great Financial Crisis

Sarah Breeden, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England for financial stability, joins Big Boss Interview to discuss risks in the global financial system, the rapid growth of private credit, and whether markets are prepared for the next economic shock. She tells BBC Business Editor, Simon Jack the private credit market has grown to around $2.5 trillion in less than two decades, and says the BoE is watching the sector closely. She warns it has “never been tested at this scale” and that aspects of the market carry echoes of the period leading up to the 2008 financial crisis — including rising leverage, complex interconnections between funds, insurers, pension schemes and banks, and limited transparency compared to traditional lending. There are already signs of strain. Investors have begun pulling money out of some funds, while others have been gated or marked down. Breeden warns this could lead to what she describes as a “private credit crunch”, where companies reliant on this form of financing may struggle to refinance their debt. While distinct from a banking-led crisis, she says the consequences for the real economy could still be significant. At the same time, she highlights a growing disconnect between financial markets and underlying economic risks. Asset prices in some areas remain close to record highs despite geopolitical instability, persistent inflationary pressures and vulnerabilities within parts of the financial system. Breeden says the Bank expects an adjustment — meaning prices will fall — but stresses the key question is not whether this happens, but when and how sharply. A further concern is the reduced capacity of governments to respond to future crises. Sovereign debt levels are at historic highs, limiting the scope for large-scale fiscal intervention of the kind seen during the 2008 financial crisis or the energy shock following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. That places greater emphasis on ensuring the resilience of the financial system itself. Breeden says the scenario that most concerns her is a combination of risks materialising simultaneously — a macroeconomic downturn, a loss of confidence in private credit, and a sharp repricing of risky assets. It is this kind of convergence, she says, that “really keeps me awake at night”. The Bank is actively stress-testing such scenarios and working with international counterparts to ensure the system is prepared. While she notes that the banking sector is significantly better capitalised than before 2008, reducing the likelihood of a repeat of that crisis, the interview makes clear that new forms of risk are emerging in parallel — and that understanding how they interact will be critical in determining how resilient the global financial system proves to be. Presenter: Simon Jack Producer: Ollie Smith & Olie D'Albertanson Picture: Bank of England