Brexit at 10: What comes next? With Anand Menon

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• 00:01

  A vote to leave would represent an immediate and profound shock to our economy.

• 00:06

  That shock would push our economy into a recession and lead to an increase in unemployment of around 500,000.

• 00:13

  GDP would be 3.6% smaller, average real wages would be lower, inflation higher, sterling weaker,

• 00:20

  house prices would be hit and public borrowing would rise compared with a vote to remain.

• 00:25

  Sounds bad.

• 00:27

  That was the assessment of the UK Treasury in May 2016, just weeks before Britain's voted to leave the EU.

• 00:34

  Now, those dire predictions didn't come to pass.

• 00:37

  The UK economy didn't dive into a recession,

• 00:40

  but a decade on, there is no question that Brexit has been bad for the British economy.

• 00:45

  So bad that the question of whether it might be reversed is no longer a taboo.

• 00:49

  After years of squabbles, uncertainty and trade barriers, What lessons are there,

• 00:54

  both for the UK and for the rest of the world, when navigating this era of economic conflict?

• 01:01

  And what comes next?

• 01:07

  This is The Economics Show with Simea Keynes.

• 01:10

  I'm joined here in London by Anand Menon, Professor of European Politics and Foreign Affairs at King's College London,

• 01:16

  and Director of the Think Tank, UK in a Changing Europe.

• 01:20

  Anand, welcome.

• 01:21

  Thanks for having me, Simea.

• 01:23

  OK, on a scale of 1 to 10, how bad has Brexit been for the UK economy?

• 01:30

  God, I'm trying to wrap my head around the scale here.

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