Why Almost Everyone Loses on Prediction Markets

为何几乎每个人在预测市场上都会亏损

WSJ What’s News

2026-05-04

14 分钟
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单集简介 ...

A.M. Edition for May 4. President Trump announces a new plan for opening the Strait of Hormuz - but traders seem unconvinced, sending oil prices higher. Plus, GameStop makes a massive play for e-commerce giant Ebay. And a Journal investigation reveals why most prediction market bets end in a loss. WSJ’s Neil Mehta details the winners and losers of platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket - and why the odds are worse than a Vegas slot machine. Daniel Bach hosts. Sign up for the WSJ’s free What’s News newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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  • Your teams spend more time searching for information than using it.

  • Amazon Quick changes that.

  • One intelligent assistant that connects all your company's data and turns answers into action instantly.

  • Aws. com slash quick.

  • President Trump announces a new plan for opening the Strait of Hormuz.

  • But traders seem unconvinced.

  • Plus, GameStop makes a massive play for e-commerce giant eBay.

  • And the journal reveals why most prediction market bets end in a loss.

  • Calci and Polymarket have pitched themselves as this everyman's platform,

  • where anyone can monetize their beliefs and win.

  • But what they don't mention is that you'll probably lose.

  • It's Monday, May 4th.

  • I'm Daniel Bach for The Wall Street Journal, filling in for Luke Vargas.

  • And here is the AM edition of What's News, the top headlines and business stories moving your world today.

  • President Trump has said the U.S.

  • Would begin guiding commercial ships out of the Strait of Hormuz today in an effort to unblock the waterway.

  • But critics point to how the plan doesn't involve naval escorts.

  • Instead, Project Freedom allows for countries,

  • insurance companies, and shippers to coordinate in a bid to get traffic flowing through the strait.

  • For now, though, oil traders appear unconvinced it will resolve a supply crunch that has sent prices soaring.