Is a nuclear arms race inevitable?

核武器竞赛是否不可避免?

Insider

2026-04-14

39 分钟
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Donald Trump’s central war aim in Iran is to stop the country’s nuclear-weapons programme. If anything, the conflict may have aggravated the nuclear threat. The fragile ceasefire agreed on last week did not mention Iran’s nuclear stockpile. Though American and Israeli bombing damaged Iran’s infrastructure, over 400kg of highly enriched uranium is still buried at nuclear sites. The Iranian regime, weakened and angry, may now have a greater incentive to go for a bomb to deter future attacks. This could spur Iran’s neighbours to join the race.  Elsewhere, America’s allies are concerned its nuclear umbrella may no longer be a reliable security guarantee and are openly talking about getting their own bomb. And more leaders seem willing to rattle the nuclear sabre. Is the world standing on the edge of a nuclear precipice? Rafael Mariano Grossi, the director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, sits down with David Rennie, The Economist’s geopolitics editor, to discuss the latest on the Iran war, why the nuclear taboo is weakening and how he plans to counter nuclear proliferation.
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  • In an increasingly lawless world, one principle remains

  • that it's a disaster for the number of nuclear armed powers to grow.

  • But that principle is being tested like never before.

  • There are fears a wounded Iranian regime will now push to build a bomb as soon as possible.

  • And Iran's neighbors could race to follow suit.

  • If a nuclear arms race begins, it's the job of Rafael Mariano Grossi to sound the alarm.

  • He's Director General of the UN's nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency.

  • I met him at his headquarters in Vienna to ask:

  • Is the world standing on the edge of a nuclear precipice?

  • Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi, welcome to Inside Geopolitics.

  • Thank you for having me.

  • So, there are a lot of reasons to worry about events in Iran right now.

  • But I guess top of mind for many is 440 kilos of highly enriched uranium

  • that your agency estimated was there.

  • Do you know where that uranium is now?

  • Well, we were inspecting that material as part of our regular program of inspections in Iran.

  • And we were actually inspecting up to just a few days before the 12-day war.

  • So our estimations were quite accurate to the gram.

  • We don't know now, and this is why we need to go back.

  • I think the overall evaluation, assessment is that this material is where it was at that time.