Why oil hasn’t ruined the global economy. With Rory Johnston

200美元油价落空:中国如何破局?

The Economics Show

2026-10-23

30 分钟
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Eight months ago, when the Iran war began, analysts worried that oil could go up to $200 per barrel. That’s a huge jump compared with about $70 before the conflict, and there were fears it would cause a huge shock to the global economy. Luckily, that hasn’t happened. But oil prices have been climbing again since July. Commentator and analyst Rory Johnston joins host Soumaya Keynes to talk through how high prices could still go and why what you pay at the pump doesn’t reflect the cost of unrefined oil. Subscribe to Soumaya's show on Apple, Spotify, Pocket Casts or wherever you listen. Presented by Soumaya Keynes. Produced by Mischa Frankl-Duval. Original music and sound design by Breen Turner. Manuela Saragosa is the executive producer. Flo Phillips is the FT’s head of audio. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  • When the Strait of Hormuz was first closed,

  • some analysts predicted that oil prices would rise to astronomical levels.

  • Brent crude oil had been around $70 a barrel.

  • Could it rise to $150 a barrel?

  • $200 a barrel?

  • And with those crazy prices,

  • could the global economy experience a major shock?

  • Those predictions never came to pass.

  • The worst never happened.

  • Prices rose to over $100 a barrel,

  • but then inventories were drawn down.

  • China reduced its demand.

  • And over May and June,

  • prices of Brent crude oil fell almost back down to their pre-crisis levels.

  • Crisis over?

  • Or not?

  • Since the beginning of July,

  • prices have been climbing again.

  • At the time of recording on Wednesday, October 21st,

  • they are close to the highs reached when the Iran War first started