How to win a penalty shootout (with game theory)

如何通过博弈论赢得点球大战

Planet Money

2026-07-04

17 分钟
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Lionel Messi is arguably the greatest soccer scorer of all time. But when it comes to penalty kicks, Messi is merely average. Why? Maybe the answer involves game theory. According to game theory, there’s an optimal strategy for taking penalty kicks. This strategy involves an idea that was once somewhat controversial in economics — that is, until economists started studying soccer players in real life.  On today's show, we kick it over to the hosts of the Soccernomics podcast to explain how game theory has changed soccer, and how soccer has changed game theory.  Watch the penalty shootout between Manchester United and Chelsea in the Champions League final in 2008.  Support:Planet Money+ Read: Our book: Planet Money: A Guide to the Economic Forces That Shape Your Life Our weekly longform Planet Money newsletterOur weekly Indicator round-up newsletter Follow: InstagramTikTokYouTubeFacebook This episode of Planet Money was produced by Emma Peaslee with help from James Sneed. It was edited by Jess Jiang. It was fact checked by Sierra Juarez and engineered by Annlie Huang. Alex Goldmark is our executive producer. The Soccernomics episode was originally hosted by Ashish Malhotra, Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski and sound designed by Alex Roldan. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences. NPR Privacy Policy
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  • Last week, one of the best soccer players of all time did something kind of shocking.

  • Lionel Messi missed a penalty kick.

  • The top World Cup scorer of all time is actually a slightly below average penalty kicker.

  • He's in the running for missing the most penalties of any player in World Cup history.

  • Somehow, Messi is worse at scoring when he's just 12 yards from the goal,

  • with no one but the goalie between him and the back of the net.

  • And that might be because there's another skill at play when it comes to penalty kicks.

  • It's not just about how good you are at kicking the ball.

  • It's about something we here at Planet Money love.

  • Game theory.

  • The use of game theory in soccer penalties

  • might be one of the most interesting applications of economic theory, like, ever.

  • Today on the show, we hear from the folks at the Soccernomics Podcast about the art and strategy of the penalty kick.