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Let me just say this up front.
Predicting the future is hard.
We once made an episode called "The Folly of Prediction," episode number 41, if you want to hunt it down.
The findings were clear: most of us are much worse than we think at making predictions,
and we're also much more confident than we ought to be.
But that doesn't stop us from trying.
Look at the huge success of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket.