Polymarket and Kalshi Grapple With A New Class of Insider Trader

Polymarket:是预知未来还是法外之地?

Big Take

2026-07-21

25 分钟
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From celebrity wedding details to the timing of military strikes, prediction markets have opened the door to gambling on almost anything. They’ve also created a new class of insider trader that platforms and US regulators are racing to stop. On today’s Big Take podcast, Bloomberg’s Denitsa Tsekova and Leonardo Nicoletti join host Sarah Holder to break down a $200 million surge in unusual bets on Polymarket — and explore what it will take for regulators to rein them in. Read more: Prediction Markets Are Minting a New Type of Insider Trader We have a special Bloomberg subscription offer for podcast listeners at Bloomberg.com/podcastoffer. Hosted by Sarah Holder; Produced by Rachael Lewis-Krisky and Victor Swezey; Reported by Denitsa Tsekova and Leonardo Nicoletti; Edited by Aaron Edwards and Julia Weaver. Fact-checking by Victor Swezey, Laura Newcombe and David Fox; Engineering by Emma Munger. Senior Producer: Naomi Shavin; Deputy Executive Producer: Julia Weaver. Executive Producer: Nicole Beemsterboer. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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  • I'm camping outside the Super Bowl stadium with this listening device for the next few days.

  • Because you can bet on how long the national anthem will be.

  • Back in February, the TikToker Kaden Booth thought of a way to game the Super Bowl.

  • He wanted to make a wager on the prediction platform Polymarket about how long

  • it would take Charlie Puth to sing the national anthem.

  • He figured out when the rehearsals for the Super Bowl are happening.

  • He figured out when the artists are flying.

  • He was tracking like private jets, other jets, and just like figuring out all the travel.

  • That's Denitsa Tsekova, a cross-asset reporter covering global markets at Bloomberg.

  • He waited 12 hours in total and in the end he managed to be outside on a public sidewalk

  • listening to the rehearsal of the national anthem and timing it with a stopwatch in hand.

  • Kaden would go on to bet more than $50,000 based on this estimate.

  • So I hammered under 117 seconds, waited to the Super Bowl to see if we won.

  • And on game day, he won big when the anthem came in at 104 seconds long.

  • Kaden isn't a casual Polymarket trader.

  • He's more like a power user.

  • And his Super Bowl wager became part of a larger conversation about what constitutes a fair trade on the platform.

  • So there were so many posts questioning whether this is insider trading.

  • You know, half of the responses were like, oh, this guy's super smart. He went there. He did his job.