What America and China Fear Most About AI: A Conversation with Kyle Chan and Helen Toner

美国狂炒AI末日论,中国为何不上当?

The Foreign Affairs Interview

2026-10-01

55 分钟
PDF

单集简介 ...

Over the course of just a few months, artificial intelligence has become one of the most central issues, and one of the most fraught issues, in the relationship between the United States and China. Policymakers in Washington and in Beijing simultaneously worry about which country’s tech sector has the advantage and wonder whether the search for advantage will itself lead to catastrophe for both countries and everyone else. Recent bilateral meetings, including the one last week between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, have yielded only minimal progress toward cooperation—agreement to start talking about talking about AI. Kyle Chan is a fellow at the Brookings Institution. Helen Toner is executive director of Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology. Both fairly uniquely combine deep knowledge of AI and deep knowledge of China, which they bring to their work in Foreign Affairs and beyond. Dan Kurtz-Phelan spoke with Chan and Toner about how the two countries think and approach AI, with real differences as well as some new convergences; what it means to compete; and what it will take for the United States and China to find some way to reduce the biggest risks. You can find sources, transcripts, and more episodes of The Foreign Affairs Interview at https://www.foreignaffairs.com/podcasts/foreign-affairs-interview.
更多

单集文稿 ...

  • I'm Dan Kurtz-Phelan and this is the Foreign Affairs interview.

  • The concept of a decisive strategic advantage,

  • of whoever gets to a certain threshold of AI capabilities,

  • whichever country gets there first,

  • will have superintelligence systems that could potentially have super smart military weapon systems,

  • could have dominant cyber capabilities,

  • could basically come to rule the world.

  • I mean, I like put it so bluntly

  • because I think that does kind of reflect the the stakes

  • that many in Washington feel

  • when it comes to why the US needs to lead in in AI.

  • And I don't think that's how it's seen at least among Chinese policymakers.

  • The fact that China is, you know, relatively close behind the US

  • should not be reason for us to not regulate our own industry.

  • We should not treat the speed at which the two industries are developing as totally independent.

  • As that is to say, it's not like 100 m sprint

  • where if one runner just stops running,

  • the other runners are going to continue at exactly the same speed.

  • I think it's much more like a peloton in a bike race

  • where you have a group of cyclists