Rapid improvements in AI capabilities and growing corporate adoption have led some prominent technologists to predict
that AI could eliminate a massive number of jobs before the end of the decade.
So just how concerned should we be about an AI job apocalypse?
I'm Alison Nathan, and this is Goldman Sachs Exchanges.
Each month I speak with investors, policymakers,
and academics about the most pressing market-moving issues for our top-of-mind report from Goldman Sachs Research.
This month, I spoke with MIT's Darren Asimoglu and Neil Thompson, as well as with Joseph Briggs,
who leads the global economics team in Goldman Sachs Research.
I started by asking Joseph just how much labor displacement from AI he expects ahead.
Joseph, I know you are well aware that there's been a lot of debate about AI's potential impact
on the US labor market, especially as we've seen some companies citing AI as a factor in recent layoffs.
We've all seen the headlines.
What are you expecting in terms of AI-related labor displacement in the near term and over the longer term?
So to level set, if we look at the labor market today, you can see the imprint of AI in a few.
Industries and a few sectors where we know that AI is already having an impact.
And so if we combine across sectors like tech and management consulting
and graphic design, areas where tools have already been developed and deployed,
you can see that overall there's probably a 10,000 to 15,000 drag on month-over-month job growth from AI impacts.
All that being said, it's still a fairly narrow labor market shock,
and we're not seeing a big impact today on the broader economy.