How long will the Iran energy shock last? With Chris Giles

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• 00:00

  President Trump's threats of civilizational destruction didn't come to pass.

• 00:04

  Instead, the US and Iran have agreed a two-week ceasefire to open the Strait of Hormuz

• 00:09

  and lay the groundwork for a peace deal.

• 00:12

  There is no guarantee this will hold.

• 00:14

  Even if it does, the global economy will still have to cope with a major and ongoing energy supply shock.

• 00:22

  This week, we are going to ask, how long will the Iran shock last?

• 00:32

  This is The Economics Show with Samaya Keynes.

• 00:34

  I'm joined here in the studio by the FT's economics commentator and author of Chris Giles on Central Banks.

• 00:41

  Well, Chris Giles.

• 00:43

  Hi.

• 00:44

  Thanks so much for joining me.

• 00:45

  OK, so my starting silly question is how you currently rate the supply shock to the global economy on a scale of 1 to 10,

• 00:52

  given where we are now, which is Wednesday,

• 00:55

  April the 8th, 1pm London time, after the big announcement that Armageddon was postponed.

• 01:02

  Well, it had a potential to be a 10 because it's very easy, very round numbers in global oil markets.

• 01:09

  There's about 100 million barrels of oil produced and consumed per day.

• 01:13

  So everything is round numbers.

• 01:15

  And we lost about 20 through the Strait of Hormuz.

• 01:18

  That was about the same amount as was lost in the first two months of COVID because we just didn't do anything.

• 01:25

  And that was a terrible supply shock.

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