Hello and welcome to NewsHour from the World Service of the BBC, live from London.
This is Owen Bennett-Jones.
You might think the best way to predict what will happen in the Strait of Hormuz is to follow the money markets
and the gambling websites where people place, after all, real money on future outcomes.
But the markets are so short-term they oscillate wildly, driven by social media messages and, it seems.
Inside information.
Meanwhile, political analysts are looking further ahead,
but many express uncertainty about how all this can be resolved.
The Iranian blockade was countered by a US blockade, which has now been met with a renewed Iranian blockade.
So, for the moment, stalemate.
This recording was posted online by a site scanning radio traffic and ship's positions in the Gulf.
It describes this crackled radio instruction as the Iranian Navy warning a ship to change course.
You are ordered to go back to your departure immediately.
You are ordered to go back to your departure immediately.
Did you get my message?
OK, copied your message.
I will turn back.
Some ships have come under fire from the Iranians as they force them back from the strait.
Captain Rahman Kapoor is the skipper of an Indian oil tanker
that 's been held in the Gulf since the start of the conflict.