The jobs apocalypse: a (very) short history

就业末日(极)简史

Economist

2026-05-15

12 分钟
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  • At no time in polling history have Americans been less optimistic about their long-term employment prospects.

  • The average person believes they have a 22% chance of losing their job in the next five years,

  • according to one survey,

  • a higher share than even during the global financial crisis of 2007-09.

  • The cause of this gloom is artificial intelligence.

  • Nearly one in five American workers recently told another pollster

  • that AI or automation is "very" or "somewhat" likely to replace them.

  • It isn't just average people who are alarmed.

  • So are the leaders of the very AI companies causing the anxiety.

  • Dario Amodei of Anthropic has warned that AI could push unemployment to 10-20%.

  • Bill Gates, co-founder of Microsoft, said that in an AI world people will not be needed for "most things".

  • Sam Altman, boss of OpenAI, has clocked that talking up the technology's disruptive power is provoking a backlash,

  • and now speaks of "tools to augment and elevate people, not entities to replace them".

  • But even he could not resist mentioning "disruption/significant transition as we switch to new jobs".

  • Economists are, for a change, far less dismal.

  • They are allergic to the "lump of labour fallacy"

  • which treats the jobs market as static and zero-sum.

  • If technology displaces workers from some occupations, they argue,

  • it enriches others, who then spend their gains on goods and services

  • that create new employment.