Episode 51: What Happened?

第51集:发生了什么?

Hidden Brain

社会科学

2016-11-15

26 分钟
PDF

单集简介 ...

On the morning after election day, pundits, pollsters, politicians, and citizens woke up feeling stunned. All signs, all year, had been pointing towards a victory for Democrat Hillary Clinton. So, what happened? We ask one of the few people who didn't get it wrong: the historian Allan Lichtman.
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单集文稿 ...

  • This is hidden brain.

  • I'm Shankar Vedantam.

  • Democrats were not the only ones chagrined after the us presidential vote.

  • Donald Trump's election has sent shockwaves through the world of pollsters and political analysts.

  • Pundits on both the left and right had predicted Hillary Clinton would walk away with the race.

  • Today we're talking to one expert who got it right.

  • There are several surprising things about him.

  • For one thing, Alan Lichtman is a historian, not a data scientist.

  • For another, this wasnt a fluke.

  • This is the 9th time in a row hes called the election correctly.

  • Finally, and this is the craziest part, Allen often calls the winner months and sometimes years before an election.

  • He sometimes called elections before he knows which candidates are running.

  • Alan says his secret is sitting in plain sight.

  • But most of us are too consumed with the drama of campaigns and candidates to see it.

  • Alan Lichtman, welcome to hidden brain.

  • Thank you so much.

  • Alan, you're in the Middle east right now in a hotel room in Qatar.

  • I want to take you back more.

  • Than a quarter century.

  • You were at Cal Tech and you sat down to dinner next to another academic.