Why China’s exports will keep on rising

中国出口一路狂飙

Economist

2026-04-23

11 分钟
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  • DING LEI, a purchasing manager at a chip-trading company in Shenzhen, is having a good year.

  • Among other kinds of semiconductors, his company is selling IGBTs,

  • a type of transistor used to regulate electrical power.

  • Customers include motorbike-makers in Spain, manufacturers in Romania and clients across South-East Asia.

  • His optimism about sales prospects is understandable.

  • In the first three months of 2026, China's exports of transistors jumped by 26% in dollar terms

  • compared with the same period of 2025.

  • This time last year, after Donald Trump introduced "liberation day" tariffs on friends and foes,

  • the levy on Chinese goods leapt for a time to 145%.

  • (After a ruling by America's Supreme Court in February,

  • tariffs have fallen back to 10% across the board, at least for now.)

  • Many assumed that China's trade would slump.

  • But by the end of 2025 it had defied all expectations.

  • China racked up a record $1.2trn trade surplus and its exports rose to $3.8trn.

  • In the first three months of 2026 exports continued their stellar streak,

  • increasing by 14.7% compared with the same period last year.

  • To understand China's standout performance, The Economist has scraped and analysed millions of lines of trade data,

  • each describing exports of a particular product to a specific country in an individual month.

  • Our findings help to explain how the country's exports stayed resilient

  • in the face of an escalating trade war.