How the US-Iran Deal Could Affect Oil Prices

Oil prices are expected to fall further following news that the US and Iran agreed to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But oil is unlikely to return to pre-war levels for some time, according to Goldman Sachs Research's Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research and head of oil research. Struyven says that oil is still at risk of rising because of lingering effects from the conflict, persistently low inventory levels, and the possibility that the Strait of Hormuz never fully reopens. Goldman Sachs Research projects Brent oil will average $75 per barrel next year, down from about $80 at the time the podcast was recorded.    The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice, and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates. The material provided is intended for informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products. This material may contain forward-looking statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs. A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content. Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs. Disclosures applicable to research with respect to issuers, if any, mentioned herein are available through your Goldman Sachs representative or at ⁠http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html⁠ Goldman Sachs does not endorse any candidate or any political party. Copyright 2026. All rights reserved. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices