2026-03-20
51 分钟The Economist.
The US economy is doing pretty well.
That was Jerome Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, speaking earlier this week at his monthly press conference.
But there was a caveat.
The war with Iran, Powell told gathered reporters, has "uncertain implications for America's economy."
He went on to add, "we don't know what the effects of this will be.
Really, no one does."
Americans who are paying more at the pump will feel that they already know one effect of this conflict,
and Powell does expect the oil shock from the war in Iran to boost inflation in the short term.
But the longer-term impact is less clear.
Will the conflict in the Middle East have a lasting impact on America's economy?
I'm Charlotte Howard, and this is Checks and Balance from The Economist.
Each week, we take one big theme shaping American politics and explore it in depth.
Today, the Iran war and the US economy.
America is better placed to weather an oil shock than it used to be.
After the shale-fracking revolution transformed it from a net importer to a net exporter of energy.
But the war also comes at a time when consumer confidence is already languishing at record lows.
How will the war affect America's economy and Americans' perceptions of it?
Today, I'm joined by James Bennet, here in New York, and by Archie Hall, who's in Washington.
How are you, Archie?