How did prediction markets get so big?

预测市场是如何变得如此庞大的?

The Global Story

2026-06-01

26 分钟
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On prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket people are placing sometimes huge wagers on questions ranging from the sublime (‘will Jesus Christ return by the end of the year?’) to the very serious (‘will the US invade Iran?’). Gambling is restricted across many US states but prediction markets are not classified as gambling. Their rapid rise over recent years speaks – some say – to an increasing nihilism among young men in particular, who feel they may as well try to profit from world events they cannot control. Supporters say prediction markets are a smart way to make money. Critics say they are enabling insider trading. So what is the truth behind their rise? We speak to senior business journalist at the BBC, Mitch Labiak. Producer: Hannah Moore Mix: Travis Evans Executive producers: Richard Fenton-Smith and James Shield Senior news editor: China Collins Photo: Polymarket logo appears in this illustration. Credit: Reuters/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
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  • As the U.S. bombed Iran, thousands of miles away behind their screens, people were placing bets.

  • Would the U.S. invade?

  • Would there be a nuclear detonation?

  • Would Iran's supreme leader be ousted or killed?

  • They placed hundreds of millions of dollars of bets in total, perhaps as much as 2 billion, according to NBC.

  • And some of these people won big.

  • This was conflict as financial opportunity, or even entertainment.

  • Welcome to the world of prediction markets, where you can bet on anything from the silly — is the Earth flat,

  • who's the sexiest man alive — to the sinister.

  • Advocates of these markets say they make more accurate predictions

  • of what's likely to happen in the world than politicians or polls or the media.

  • Their critics say they're enabling insider trading and encouraging people to gamble money they don't have.

  • From the BBC, I'm Tristan Redman.