With the Iran conflict now in its fourth week,
uncertainty around its duration and associated disruptions to energy supplies remains high amid continued swings
between de-escalatory and escalatory headlines.
So how long can this conflict last?
What's at stake for the key players?
And what will it take to restore global energy flows?
I'm Alison Nathan, and this is Goldman Sachs Exchanges.
Each month, I speak with investors, policymakers,
and academics about the most pressing market-moving issues for a top-of-mind report from Goldman Sachs Research.
This month, I spoke with Sanam Vakil, Director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House,
Ambassador Dennis Ross, who served as a Middle East advisor in five U.S. Administrations,
and Vice Admiral Kevin Donegan, former commander of the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet.
I started by asking Sanam what this conflict is about for Iran.
For Iran, this is seen to be a regime change war with objectives of overthrowing or destabilizing
the Islamic Republic in a significant way.
So the system or what remains of it is fighting for its very survival.
With the aim to spread the costs of the war horizontally and as widely as possible so that when off-ramps do appear,
that this war is so costly for everyone that Iran could perhaps obtain guarantees that it will not be repeated again in six
months or a year or in a few years when external powers might think that the time
is right to revisit another round with the Islamic Republic.