People are betting on war. Here’s why it matters

揭秘提前预言战争的“财富密码”,有人一注躺赚8500万!

The Story

2026-03-27

34 分钟
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Polymarket and Kalshi have become two of the fastest-growing online platforms in the prediction market, hosting bets where people can wager on the outcome of events, including on the conflict in Iran. But some observers have raised concerns that unusually precise, well-timed bets could point to insider dealings. So what exactly are prediction markets? And what does it mean for society when you can bet on almost anything? This podcast was brought to you thanks to the support of readers of The Times and The Sunday Times. Subscribe today: http://thetimes.com/thestory Guest: Chris Stokel-Walker, technology journalist and author. Host: Manveen Rana. Producer: Sophie McNulty & Julia Webster. We want to hear from you - email: thestory@thetimes.com Read more: Dollars and death threats: the dark side of prediction markets Further listening: How AI helped Trump attack Iran Clips: FRENCH 24 English, CNN, 60 Minutes, CBS News, Fox 10 Phoenix, iSpot, The Times, Coinbase.  Photo: Getty Images. This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  • This episode of the story is brought to you by HSBC UK.

  • From the Times and the Sunday Times, this is the story.

  • I'm Manveen Rana.

  • Watching the war in the Middle East unfold has caused shock and horror around the world.

  • But for some, it's also offered an opportunity.

  • Deadly American strikes and some people may have made money from them.

  • In the murky world of online prediction markets on sites like Polymarket and Kalshi,

  • users can place bets on many aspects of the war.

  • Polymarket takes bets on anything from who will win the NCAA tournament

  • to what will top the Netflix movie charts.

  • And increasingly popular are trades like this, a US and Iran ceasefire by June 30th.

  • If you take a look at any one of these sites,

  • you'll see people betting on when the war will end,

  • when traffic will be able to pass through the Strait of Hormuz,

  • and when US ground forces might enter Iranian territory.

  • A number of punters have reportedly made about a million US dollars

  • by correctly predicting when the United States would strike Iran at the weekend.

  • It's become such an eerily precise predictor of what's about to happen

  • that the founder of one of these sites, Polymarket,

  • claims it's the most accurate forecast of geopolitical events in existence.