China’s new masterplan for its tech economy in 2030 and beyond

十五五规划有多硬核

Economist

2026-03-25

7 分钟
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  • Chinese technocrats spell out their vision of the future in impenetrable officialese.

  • The 15th five-year plan for China's economic development, adopted in March,

  • talks of "industrial upgrading", "new quality productive forces" and the like.

  • Yet in plain language, it translates into Elon Musk's fever dream:

  • skies dotted with flying taxis; fusion power fuelling factories manned by humanoid robots;

  • unstoppable quantum computers; 6G mobile devices plugged directly into people's brains.

  • Past plans also displayed gumption.

  • In 2015 the most high-profile plan in years, dubbed Made in China 2025,

  • set the goal of catching up with America and ending reliance on foreign technology.

  • But catching up, which China has pulled off in areas like electric cars,

  • clean energy and even artificial intelligence, is one thing.

  • Dominating technologies of the future is another.

  • to usher in a "modernised socialist state" by 2035.

  • A modernised Chinese socialist is one generating between $20,000 and $30,000 in economic value per year,

  • up from less than $14,000 today.

  • To meet that goal, itself a step towards China becoming a "modernised socialist world power" by 2049,

  • the centennial of communist rule, GDP per person must grow by 4-8% a year

  • in the next decade.

  • With Chinese consumers in a dour mood and exporters facing geopolitical uncertainty,

  • the party believes only world-beating technology and resulting productivity gains can ensure success.