Betting on the Iran war

伊朗战争赌注

Today, Explained

2026-03-18

25 分钟
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单集简介 ...

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are making it possible for just about anyone to profit off war. This episode was produced by Hady Mawajdeh, edited by Amina Al-Sadi and Jolie Myers, fact-checked by Andrea López-Cruzado, engineered by Patrick Boyd and David Tatasciore, and hosted by Sean Rameswaram. A betting page on Kalshi about Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz. Photo by Samuel Boivin/NurPhoto via Getty Images. Listen to Today, Explained ad-free by becoming a Vox Member: vox.com/members. New Vox members get $20 off their membership right now. Transcript at ⁠vox.com/today-explained-podcast.⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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单集文稿 ...

  • There's a reporter named Emmanuel Fabian who's been covering the war in Iran

  • for The Times of Israel.

  • Recently, he got a ton of feedback about a tiny article he wrote,

  • but he couldn't figure out why.

  • It was about a missile that exploded just outside the Israeli city Beit Shemesh.

  • I'd appreciate it if you could update your article, as in its current form,

  • it does not reflect reality.

  • Someone wanted him to say it was a missile fragment instead of a missile.

  • Weird, because it was a missile.

  • Not a fragment.

  • If you could correct this tonight,

  • you'd be doing me and many others a great favor.

  • Eventually, the messages got more threatening.

  • You have exactly half an hour to correct your attempt at influence.

  • You will pay the full price for your irresponsible act.

  • Emmanuel finally figured out why people were getting so aggressive.

  • They had bet money on how bombings in Israel would play out on Polymarket.

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