Is India the fourth- or fifth-biggest economy? It does not matter

印度人的大国幻觉

Economist

2026-03-12

5 分钟
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  • India's government has a soft spot for records.

  • At an AI gabfest in Delhi last month the electronics minister accepted a Guinness World Records certificate

  • for "the most pledges received for an AI-responsibility campaign in 24 hours" (250,946).

  • This month local officials in Narendra Modi's constituency set a world record

  • for the most saplings planted in less than an hour (251,446).

  • And where records are hard to break, officials make do with a decent spot in the rankings.

  • Every so often they brag that India is the world's seventh-largest services exporter.

  • Yay!?

  • That is why officials have trumpeted for months that India's GDP is the world's fourth-largest,

  • having overtaken Japan's and lagging behind only those of America, China and Germany.

  • One minister boasted it would be third by 2027.

  • The triumphalism is premature.

  • India remains in fifth place.

  • There was no hiding from this fact when the statistics ministry released a big revision

  • to GDP calculations late last month, which found that the economy is in fact 3.3% smaller

  • than previously estimated, at just under $4trn.

  • The gap between India and Japan is about $300bn at market exchange rates, nearly double the previous estimate.

  • No matter.

  • India will achieve fourth place sooner rather than later, even if instability in the Middle East

  • erects temporary obstacles, giving India's leaders another opportunity to boast.