To understand why countries grow, look at their firms

经济增长的隐藏密码

Economist

2026-03-05

6 分钟
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  • To grasp the stakes of economic growth, start with the arithmetic of compounding.

  • Over two generations an economy growing at about 1% a year will not even double in size;

  • one growing at 7% will expand roughly 30-fold.

  • South Korea and Ghana show what such differences can mean.

  • In 1960 the two had similar incomes.

  • Today South Koreans browse Gangnam's luxury boutiques and sip lattes in Garosu-gil's trendy cafés,

  • while the typical Ghanaian still lives on less than $4 a day.

  • Even a few percentage points make an enormous difference over time:

  • fewer children die, people live longer, education spreads and daily life becomes more comfortable.

  • Little wonder that Robert Lucas, a Nobel-prizewinning economist, remarked that

  • once you start thinking about economic growth it is hard to think about anything else.

  • These days it is not difficult to think about other things.

  • Economists have played their part by drifting away from the question.

  • In the 1990s they tried to explain growth by comparing entire countries,

  • asking whether prosperity came from accumulating more educated workers and machines

  • or from something harder to measure.

  • The answer was usually "something else" (productivity, ideas, technology and so on).

  • That diagnosis was illuminating but not especially helpful.

  • By the early 2000s a backlash was under way.

  • Development economists turned away from nations and towards villages and households.