China needs a more ambitious growth target

中国经济目标定低了吗

Economist

2026-03-05

5 分钟
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  • Ever since turning communist, China has set top-down targets for its economy.

  • Mao Zedong wanted to double steel output in a year, and crippled the country trying.

  • During his rule, China often fell woefully short of its goals.

  • After his death, it often comfortably surpassed them.

  • Lately policymakers have tried to ensure it does neither;

  • their growth targets serve both as a floor and a ceiling to their ambition.

  • They should aim higher.

  • The latest target was unveiled on March 5th, during the National People's Congress (npc), China's rubber-stamp parliament.

  • The government set a growth objective of 4.5-5% in 2026, lower and looser than last year.

  • This has elicited a variety of responses.

  • Some economists think the target is still too high.

  • China's workforce is shrinking, its property market is moribund,

  • consumers are cautious and exports may not come to the rescue as they did last year.

  • Although the dangers of the trade war have receded, actual war threatens some of its markets in the Middle East.

  • Others argue that the target is just right.

  • The NPC delegates will almost all vote in favour.

  • Even among professional forecasters, the consensus guess is that China will grow by 4.6% this year,

  • if only because policymakers will steer it there or thereabouts.

  • A third camp thinks the whole exercise is fanciful.

  • China's growth figures, they argue, bear little relation to reality.