The Iran trap: will America corner itself?

伊朗陷阱:美国将自困其中吗?

Insider

2026-02-27

50 分钟
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单集简介 ...

America’s president is “curious” as to why Iran has not capitulated in the face of his vast military build-up. But as he prepares to strike, he is encountering an even bigger puzzle: what does he want his bombs and missiles to achieve? It’s not clear that Donald Trump knows. And without clear war aims he risks being drawn inexorably into a choice between escalating or looking weak. Join Edward Carr, our deputy editor, and a panel of our journalists as they consider the risks of Mr Trump’s muddle. They examine the options available to the president—from targeted strikes to a sustained campaign—and discuss the possible outcomes for Iran and the Middle East.
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  • Hi and welcome back to The Insider from our studio in London.

  • I'm Edward Carr, The Economist's deputy editor and this is a moment of reckoning between America and Iran.

  • Donald Trump's ordered an enormous military build-up in the Middle East but what he wants to do with all those forces is unclear.

  • One aim he spoke about in the State of the Union address on Tuesday is for Iran to limit its nuclear program and talks are taking place about that in Geneva today.

  • But in amassing all those troops, Mr Trump is raising expectations that he'll get a big win.

  • And that poses a dilemma.

  • If he settles for a so-so deal, he risks looking weak.

  • But if he attacks in order to extract a comprehensive deal, he may be starting a war that he'll struggle to stop.

  • Xan is on holiday this week.

  • So with me in the room to discuss this, I am joined by Shashank Joshi, our defence editor, Nick Pelham, our Middle East correspondent, and down the line from Dubai is Josie de Lap, our Middle East editor, and from Riyadh, Greg Carlstrom, our Middle East correspondent.

  • Welcome to all of you.

  • Now there are three things I want to try and get at today.

  • The first is just the array of forces in the region.

  • American, huge American forces, Iran's forces to repel that, and what the region might have to defend itself.

  • Secondly, let's try and look at exactly what those American war aims might actually be.

  • And lastly, putting all that together where we think this ends up.

  • But I first of all want to go to you, Greg, because we're recording at 1.30 London time on Thursday.

  • The talks in Geneva have broken up temporarily, and they're coming back later on today.

  • And I want to ask you, Greg, just give us a bit of contact.

  • Where might those talks actually end up?