Why the IMF’s newest report finds that the yuan is undervalued

人民币被低估

Economist

2026-02-21

6 分钟
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  • The Yuan is China's currency but the world's problem

  • It is troublesome not just because it is difficult to pronounce

  • (youen is closer to the mark than youan

  • but if you say youen no one will know what youre talking about)

  • Nor is it because

  • China's leader wants the yuan to become a "powerful" currency

  • that could eventually offer an alternative to the dollar

  • The problem is more immediate the exchange rate that would stabilise China's economy

  • is out of whack with the rate that would balance the world economy

  • That is the verdict of the IMF's annual health check for China's economy released on February 18th

  • In currency disputes the fund is the closest thing the world has to a referee

  • Its new report concludes that the yuan is undervalued by about 16%

  • That is the biggest misalignment since 2011 when a similar calculation suggested an undervaluation of 23%

  • The root of the problem lies in China's property bust over four years ago

  • The economy's weak recovery since has left its firms scrambling

  • Industrial prices paid to producers have declined for 40 months in a row

  • Wage growth is weak and inflation is "uncomfortably low" points out Sonali JainChandra of the IMF

  • Falling prices at home have made Chinese goods fiercely competitive abroad

  • This edge is reflected in China's "real" exchange rate which is adjusted for international differences in inflation

  • On this measure the yuan was 15% cheaper at the end of last year than it was four years before