Andrew Martinez on the Art of Forecasting

安德鲁·马丁内斯谈预测的艺术

Macro Musings with David Beckworth

2026-02-16

55 分钟
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Andrew Martinez is a former Treasure economist and currently is an assistant professor of economics at American University. In Andrew's first appearance on the show, he discusses his career as a forecaster, the current state of forecasting, the intersection of AI and forecasting, the role of the SEP and monetary policy surprises, his work with David on the NGDP Gap measure, and much more.     Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on January 13th, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel  Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:01:20 - Andrew's Career 00:08:36 - State of Forecasting 00:20:19 - AI and Forecasting 00:29:34 - The SEP and Monetary Policy Surprises 00:41:07 - Nominal GDP/Expectations Gap 00:54:56 - Outro
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  • Welcome to Macro Musings,

  • where each week we pull back the curtain and take a closer look at the most important macroeconomic issues of the past,

  • present, and future.

  • I am your host, David Beckworth,

  • a senior research fellow with the Mercatus Center at George Mason University,

  • and I'm glad you decided to join us.

  • Our guest today is Andrew Martinez.

  • Andrew is a former Treasury economist and comes to us now from the Economics Department at American University.

  • Andrew joins us today to discuss the art of forecasting,

  • his work at the Treasury Department, measuring monetary policy shocks correctly, and more.

  • Andrew, welcome to the show.

  • Thanks for having me, David.

  • Long time listener, first-time participant.

  • It's great to be here.

  • Glad you have you on.

  • This is a long time coming.

  • We've actually worked together.

  • I have visited you several times when you were at Treasury.

  • So I've been eager to get you on the show,

  • but you've always been in a position where you can't because of where you work.