2026-07-09
34 分钟The Economist.
On the 28th of February, the US and Israel launched a massive assault against Iran.
In response, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz,
cutting off about 20% of global oil supply.
As the world scrambled to buy up what oil it could get its hands on,
the price climbed.
US oil prices have topped $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022
amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East.
But even as prices soared well over $100 a barrel in late April,
The Economist said that the oil market was in Lalaland.
We didn't just say it, we wrote it on the cover,
arguing that prices weren't high enough.
That prediction, as it turns out, went about as well as the war did.
Oil prices extended declines on Wednesday and dropped to two-week lows.
The sell-off came after a Pakistani source said the US and Iran were close to an initial peace deal.
And today, even as tensions ramp up again in the Strait,
Brent crude is not much higher than it was before the war.
So how did we get our prediction so wrong?
You're listening to Money Talks from The Economist,
our weekly podcast on the markets, the economy, and the world of business.