Elon Musk - "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”

埃隆·马斯克:“在36个月内,最便宜部署人工智能的地方将是太空。”

Dwarkesh Podcast

2026-02-06

2 小时 49 分钟
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单集简介 ...

In this episode, John and I got to do a real deep-dive with Elon. We discuss the economics of orbital data centers, the difficulties of scaling power on Earth, what it would take to manufacture humanoids at high-volume in America, xAI’s business and alignment plans, DOGE, and much more. Watch on YouTube; read the transcript. Sponsors * Mercury just started offering personal banking! I’m already banking with Mercury for business purposes, so getting to bank with them for my personal life makes everything so much simpler. Apply now at mercury.com/personal-banking * Jane Street sent me a new puzzle last week: they trained a neural net, shuffled all 96 layers, and asked me to put them back in order. I tried but… I didn’t quite nail it. If you’re curious, or if you think you can do better, you should take a stab at janestreet.com/dwarkesh * Labelbox can get you robotics and RL data at scale. Labelbox starts by helping you define your ideal data distribution, and then their massive Alignerr network collects frontier-grade data that you can use to train your models. Learn more at labelbox.com/dwarkesh Timestamps 00:00:00 - Orbital data centers 00:36:46 - Grok and alignment 00:59:56 - xAI’s business plan 01:17:21 - Optimus and humanoid manufacturing 01:30:22 - Does China win by default? 01:44:16 - Lessons from running SpaceX 02:20:08 - DOGE 02:38:28 - TeraFab Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
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  • So are there really three hours of questions?

  • Or are you fucking serious?

  • Yeah.

  • You don't even have a lot to talk about, Elon.

  • Only point, man.

  • I mean, it's the most interesting point.

  • All the storylines are kind of converging right now.

  • So we'll see how much we can do.

  • It's almost like I planned it.

  • Exactly.

  • That would never do such a thing.

  • So as you know better than anybody else,

  • the total cost of ownership of a data center Only 10 to 15 percent is energy,

  • and that's the part you're presumably saving by moving this into space.

  • Most of it's the GPUs.

  • If they're in space, it's harder to service them or you can't service them.

  • And so the depreciation cycle goes down on them.

  • So it's just way more expensive to have the GPUs in space, presumably.

  • What's the reason to put them in space?

  • Well, the availability of energy is the issue.