How to Avoid a Great-Power War

如何避免大国战争

The Foreign Affairs Interview

2023-05-02

32 分钟
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As the Biden administration continues to provide massive amounts of military and economic support to Ukraine, it also has its eyes on China. What will it take to deter Beijing from attempting to seize Taiwan someday? What is the best strategy to avoid a great-power conflict? How can the United States maintain its technological edge on the battlefield?  These are the questions that occupy the Pentagon’s leadership, including U.S. Army General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Before becoming chairman, the president’s top military adviser, he served as chief of staff of the U.S. Army. He has deployed all over the world, including multiple tours in Iraq and Afghanistan.  We discuss the battlefield dynamics in Ukraine, how concern over escalation has shaped Western support for Kyiv, and how the United States can avoid a great-power war in the future.  You can find transcripts and more episodes of The Foreign Affairs Interview at https://www.foreignaffairs.com/podcasts/foreign-affairs-interview.
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  • I'm Dan Kurtz-Valen, and this is the Foreign Affairs Interview.

  • Today we're in a tripolar world, so three is more complicated than two.

  • And that relationship is very difficult to manage.

  • So what we have to be conscious of and careful of is not to drive China and Russia close together in a military sense.

  • General Mark Milley has his work cut out for him.

  • As chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, he's helping to guide U.S.

  • strategy in Ukraine.

  • At the same time,

  • he's trying to figure out how the United States should navigate in a very different world.

  • One where it is no longer the sole superpower, where tension with both Russia and China is growing,

  • and where, for the first time in decades, it is all too easy to imagine a great power war.

  • General Milley, thanks for doing this.

  • Hey, thanks, Dan.

  • Appreciate it.

  • So let's jump right into the subject that has no doubt dominated most of your last year and will dominate your next five months on this job.

  • What do you expect a likely Ukrainian offensive in the coming weeks to achieve?

  • And what would the path be from a successful offensive to a negotiated outcome to this war?

  • I don't want to speculate on a specific offensive or not.

  • What I will say is that over the last several months,

  • the Ukrainians have asked us for assistance, military assistance, to help them to train,