How the Past Shadows China’s Future

过去如何投射在未来的中国之上

The Foreign Affairs Interview

2026-01-01

59 分钟
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The biggest questions in U.S. foreign policy today tend to be about China. Policymakers and analysts argue over the implications of China’s rise, the extent of its ambitions, the nature of its economic influence, and the meaning of its growing military strength. Underlying these arguments is a widespread sense that where Beijing once seemed likely to slot comfortably into a U.S.-led international order, it now poses a profound challenge to American interests. No one brings more perspective to these arguments than the historian Odd Arne Westad. In a series of essays in Foreign Affairs over the past few years, Westad has explored the drivers of China’s foreign policy, its approach to global power, and its fraught ties with the United States. He sees in the long arc of Chinese and global history a stark warning about the potential for conflict, including a war between China and the United States. But Westad also sees in this history lessons for policymakers today about how to avert such an outcome. Dan Kurtz-Phelan spoke to Westad about China’s complicated past, about how that history is defining its role as a great power, and about the paths both to war and to peace in the years ahead.   You can find sources, transcripts, and more episodes of The Foreign Affairs Interview at https://www.foreignaffairs.com/podcasts/foreign-affairs-interview.
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  • I'm Dan Kurtz-Valen, and this is the Foreign Affairs Interview.

  • As we see from the 20th century, for great powers, appetite sometimes increases with eating.

  • So, you know,

  • the fact that China doesn't today have a uniform strategy

  • for becoming globally predominant is not the same thing as China wouldn't move that over time

  • if given the opportunity.

  • The biggest questions in U.S.

  • foreign policy today tend to be about China.

  • Policymakers and analysts argue over the implications of China's rise, the extent of its ambitions,

  • the nature of its economic influence, and the meaning of its growing military strength.

  • Underlying these arguments is a widespread sense that where Beijing once seemed likely to slot comfortably into a U.S.-led international order,

  • it now posed as a profound challenge to American interests.

  • No one brings more perspective to these arguments than the historian Adarna Westad.

  • In a series of essays and foreign affairs over the past few years,

  • Wested has explored the drivers of China's foreign policy,

  • its approach to global power, and its fraught ties with the United States.

  • He sees in the long arc of Chinese and global history a stark warning,

  • but the potential for conflict, including a war between China and the United States.

  • But Wested also sees in this history lessons for policymakers today about how to avoid such an outcome.

  • I recently spoke to him about China's complicated past,