2021-10-05
1 小时 11 分钟All right.
Today, I have the pleasure of speaking with Byrne Hobart,
who's a writer, consultant and investor who writes at diff.substack.com.
That's D-I-F-F.substack.com.
Here's my first question, Byrne.
You wrote an article called Foxes and Hedgehogs, and here's the final line in the article.
If it looks like somebody doesn't have a single big idea, they probably do, and it's a good one.
Now,
you are somebody who writes every single day and you're every single weekday and you're writing about all kinds of things in finance,
technology, and so on.
And it might seem like you don't have one big idea,
but that's exactly why I should expect you to have one big idea.
So here's my guess where your big idea is, and you tell me if I'm wrong or right.
Basically, most human decisions, whether they're made by individuals or by institutions,
can be boiled down to some simple financial concepts like expected value, optionality, volatility.
And because other people are missing this,
they're not reporting on the important trends or they're reporting about them in a way that misses the long-term impact these trends will have.
How far off am I?
I think that's a good mental model and it's one that I've used.
a whole lot.