2022-05-05
50 分钟Now, here's a question I've had for a while.
Why don't companies who have direct incentive to get the best possible information on themselves,
on the factors affecting their business,
why aren't they using internal prediction markets if this is the best way to aggregate information?
All right, this is going to be fun.
Today, I have the pleasure of speaking with my friend Stephen Grugit.
He's the founder of Manifold Markets, which has received a grant from Scott Alexander.
Scott has written thousands of words about these guys, and they've raised a $2 million seed round.
And it's an incredibly exciting project.
So, Stephen, why don't you tell us a little bit about Manifold Markets?
Great.
Thanks so much for having me on this podcast, Orkash.
It's great to be on here after...
seeing other people like Tyler Cowan and David Deutsch.
I guess first thing, I'm one of three co-founders of manifold markets.
But what we're doing is building a platform for user-created prediction markets.
So the idea is that anyone can come onto our site and create a question about anything that they care about.
And then they can have their friends and other people on our site come bet on that.
And the betting process through the magic of our market mechanism will help get the best and most calibrated probabilities that you can find.
So let's talk about the mechanism here.