Byrne Hobart - FTX, Drugs, Twitter, Taiwan, & Monasticism

伯恩·霍巴特 - FTX、毒品、推特、台湾与修道主义

Dwarkesh Podcast

2022-12-01

1 小时 30 分钟
PDF

单集简介 ...

Perhaps the most interesting episode so far. Byrne Hobart writes at thediff.co, analyzing inflections in finance and tech. He explains: * What happened at FTX * How drugs have induced past financial bubbles * How to be long AI while hedging Taiwan invasion * Whether Musk’s Twitter takeover will succeed * Where to find the next Napoleon and LBJ * & ultimately how society can deal with those who seek domination and recognition Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes. Timestamps: (0:00:50) - What the hell happened at FTX? (0:07:03) - How SBF Faked Being a Genius:  (0:12:23) - Drugs Explain Financial Bubbles (0:17:12) - On Founder Physiognomy (0:21:02) - Indexing Parental Involvement in Raising Talented Kids (0:30:35) - Where are all the Caro-level Biographers? (0:39:03) - Where are today's Great Founders?  (0:48:29) - Micro Writing -> Macro Understanding (0:51:48) - Elon's Twitter Takeover (1:00:50) - Does Big Tech & West Have Great People? (1:11:34) - Philosophical Fanatics and Effective Altruism  (1:17:17) - What Great Founders Have In Common (1:19:56) - Thinkers vs. Analyzers (1:25:40) - Taiwan Invasion bets & AI Timelines Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
更多

单集文稿 ...

  • Okay, today I have the pleasure of interviewing Bern Hobart again for the second time now,

  • who writes at thediff.co.

  • The way I would describe Bern is,

  • every time I have a question about a concept or an event in finance,

  • I Google the name of that event or concept into Google and then I'd put in Bern Hobart at the end of that search query.

  • And nine times out of 10, it's the best thing I've read about that topic.

  • And it's just so interesting.

  • It's just like the most schizophrenic and galaxy brain it takes about how the discourses of Machiavelli's discourses relate to big tech or how Soros's theory of reflexivity explains hiring in finance and tech.

  • So just very interesting stuff.

  • I'm glad to have him back on again.

  • Yeah, great to be back.

  • Awesome.

  • OK, so at first, I really want to jump into the FTX saga.

  • What the hell happened?

  • Let me just like leave an open-ended question for you Yeah,

  • so I think I think the first thing to say is that there's a lot we don't know There's a lot we may never know

  • because so many of the decisions that FTX were made through self like auto deleting encrypted chat So like there there are some holes we will never be able to fill in the lack of accounting is also going to make it tough like Basically,

  • I think you can tell a bunch of different stories here.

  • The really obvious one is fraud, and you can debate over exactly when it started.

  • One version of the story, which is getting some currency, is that...