Holden Karnofsky — History's most important century

霍尔顿·卡诺夫斯基——历史上最重要的世纪

Dwarkesh Podcast

2023-01-03

1 小时 56 分钟
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单集简介 ...

Holden Karnofsky is the co-CEO of Open Philanthropy and co-founder of GiveWell. He is also the author of one of the most interesting blogs on the internet, Cold Takes. We discuss: * Are we living in the most important century? * Does he regret OpenPhil’s 30 million dollar grant to OpenAI in 2016? * How does he think about AI, progress, digital people, & ethics? Highly recommend! Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here. Timestamps (0:00:00) - Intro (0:00:58) - The Most Important Century (0:06:44) - The Weirdness of Our Time (0:21:20) - The Industrial Revolution  (0:35:40) - AI Success Scenario (0:52:36) - Competition, Innovation , & AGI Bottlenecks (1:00:14) - Lock-in & Weak Points (1:06:04) - Predicting the Future (1:20:40) - Choosing Which Problem To Solve (1:26:56) - $30M OpenAI Investment (1:30:22) - Future Proof Ethics (1:37:28) - Integrity vs Utilitarianism (1:40:46) - Bayesian Mindset & Governance (1:46:56) - Career Advice Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
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  • If we had AI systems that could do everything humans do to advance science and technology,

  • that would be insane.

  • We live in a weird time.

  • Growth has been exploding, accelerating over the last blink of an eye.

  • We really need to be kind of like nervous and vigilant about what comes next and thinking about all the things that could radically transform the world.

  • You just imagine a universe where there actually are some people who live in an especially important time.

  • And then there's a bunch of other people who like tell stories to themselves about what,

  • you know, whether they do.

  • How would you want all those people to behave?

  • And it's like, to me, the worst possible rule is all those people should just be like,

  • now this is crazy and forget about it.

  • All right.

  • Today I have the pleasure of speaking with Holden Karnofsky, who is the co-CEO of open philanthropy.

  • In my opinion, Holden is one of the most interesting intellectuals alive.

  • Well, given your role.

  • So Holden, welcome to the Lunar Society.

  • Thanks for having me.

  • Okay.

  • So let's start off by talking about the most important century thesis.

  • Do you want to explain what this is for the audience?