Ilya Sutskever (OpenAI Chief Scientist) — Why next-token prediction could surpass human intelligence

伊利亚·苏茨克韦尔(OpenAI首席科学家)——为何下一个词的预测可能超越人类智慧

Dwarkesh Podcast

2023-03-27

47 分钟
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单集简介 ...

I went over to the OpenAI offices in San Fransisco to ask the Chief Scientist and cofounder of OpenAI, Ilya Sutskever, about: * time to AGI * leaks and spies * what's after generative models * post AGI futures * working with Microsoft and competing with Google * difficulty of aligning superhuman AI Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes. Timestamps (00:00) - Time to AGI (05:57) - What’s after generative models? (10:57) - Data, models, and research (15:27) - Alignment (20:53) - Post AGI Future (26:56) - New ideas are overrated (36:22) - Is progress inevitable? (41:27) - Future Breakthroughs Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
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单集文稿 ...

  • But I would not underestimate the difficulty of alignment of models that are actually smarter than us,

  • of models that are capable of misrepresenting their intentions.

  • Are you worried about spies?

  • I'm really not worried about the way it's being leaked.

  • We'll all be able to become more enlightened

  • because we'd interact with an AGI that will help us see the world more correctly,

  • like imagine talking to the best meditation teacher in history.

  • Microsoft has been a very, very good partner for us.

  • So I challenge the claim that next token prediction cannot surpass human performance.

  • If your base neural net is smart enough, you just ask it like,

  • what would a person with great insight and wisdom and capability do?

  • Okay, today I have the pleasure of interviewing Elia Sutskover,

  • who is the co-founder and chief scientist of OpenAI.

  • Elia, welcome to the Lunar Society.

  • Thank you.

  • Happy to be here.

  • First question, and no humility allowed.

  • There's many scientists, or maybe not that many scientists,

  • who will make a big breakthrough in their field.

  • There's far fewer scientists who will make multiple independent breakthroughs that define their field throughout their career.